President and Chief Executive Officer of the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), Samaila Zubairu
Nigeria should raise its economic ambition and target a $2 trillion economy rather than settle for the federal government’s $1 trillion goal, Samaila Zubairu, president and chief executive officer of Africa Finance Corporation, said
Zubairu said the larger ambition was necessary because Nigeria’s population is projected to approach 360 million by 2050, creating an urgent need to expand productive capacity, jobs, infrastructure and investment
“I commend the federal government’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy,” Zubairu said at the Africa’s Greatest Investment Opportunity forum in Lagos on Thursday. “But why should Nigeria not aim for $2 trillion?”
He said Nigeria’s demographic growth means the country cannot afford cautious economic ambitions, arguing that the global economic order increasingly rewards countries capable of building infrastructure and productive capacity at speed
“The road to $2 trillion for us is one that I believe is achievable,” Zubairu said. “Nobody is coming to build Nigeria for us. Nobody is coming to build Africa for us. We must take ownership.”
Nigeria has already paid a high price for economic stabilisation, but stabilisation should only serve as the foundation for stronger growth, he said
The West African nation has undergone series of reforms, including removal of petrol subsidies, unifying its exchange rate and overhaul its age-long tax laws — some hard resets that have stabilised the economy and quickened growth
“But stabilisation is not success,” he said. “It is the platform from which success must now be built.”
He said Nigeria’s large domestic market, natural ree a major industrial economy, but that policy, infrastructure, capital and education are needed to convert those re
Nigeria has more than 200 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, which Zubairu said could support power generation, fertiliser production, chemicals and other industries
The country also has significant unexplored mineral realent, he said
“If Nigeria industrialises, it changes Africa’s trajectory,” Zubairu said
Four growth engines to drive $2trn economy
Zubairu identified technology, the creative economy, mining and minerals, and oil and gas as four sectors capable of accelerating Nigeria from a $1 trillion to a $2 trillion economy
Technology should become productivity infrastructure across the wider economy rather than remain concentrated in a small number of companies, he said
Nigeria has the talent and technology companies needed to build a globally competitive technology-services industry, but requires reliable electricity, data centres, patient capital and a clearer pathway from training to company formation and growth
He also called for greater use of technology to formalise Nigeria’s large informal economy, saying digital identity, payments and public services could lower the cost of doing business, broaden the tax base and bring more economic activity into the formal system
The creative economy is another major opportunity, Zubairu said, pointing to the global reach of Nigerian film, music, fashion and art
He said Nigeria needed to finance creative industries as businesses rather than treat them solely as cultural products, with better intellectual-property protection, production infrastructure, structured finance and global distribution
Mining could also become a major export engine if Nigeria moves beyond extracting minerals to processing and manufacturing, he said
“Export plants and power plants, export jobs, and import trade,” Zubairu said, warning that illegal mining and smuggling were allowing Nigeria to lose significant value from its mineral re
He said the country needed transparent licensing, geological data, processing plants, reliable power and financing to develop its mineral value chains
Oil and gas, meanwhile, should be used to finance the transition to a broader industrial economy rather than treated as an end in itself
“Oil is not a destination. It is a bridge,” Zubairu said. “Every [barrel] should help finance the industrial economy, power, transport, processing, and the infrastructure that outlives oil.”
Infrastructure remains critical
Zubairu said the four sectors would only deliver sustained growth if Nigeria addresses constraints in electricity, transport, ports, human capital, regulation and long-term financing
He pointed to the Dangote refinery as evidence that Nigeria can build industrial projects at significant scale and use domestic re
He said the next step should be to replicate such projects across chemicals, fertiliser, steel, aluminium, power and agro-processing
AFC is also supporting the development of an alumina refinery in Nigeria that would process locally mined bauxite and use industrial gas, Zubairu said
The project, he said, illustrates the type of investment needed to move Nigeria and Africa from exporting raw materials to processing re employment
“Africa needs projects of comparable ambition,” Zubairu said. “And we need them fast because our demographic clock is running.”
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